The Geopolitical Shock Playbook (Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley) | #623
My guest today is Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s Chief U.S. Equity Strategist and Chief Investment Officer. In today’s episode, Mike Wilson explains how a rolling recession has given way to a staggered recovery, and why he expects leadership to broaden beyond mega-cap stocks into small caps, cyclicals, and international markets. He highlights growing risks from AI disruption, private credit weakness, and the Iran conflict. To close, Mike discusses a shift beyond the traditional 60/40 portfolio toward a more flexible 60/20/20 approach that includes assets like gold.
Key Points
- The concept of rolling recessions and recoveries describes the staggered and sector-specific downturns and upturns in the economy, rather than a synchronized collapse and recovery.
- Small caps and equal-weighted indices may offer better opportunities than large caps, particularly in consumer discretionary and industrial sectors.
- AI's impact on labor and productivity is starting to be felt, particularly in sectors like financial services and healthcare, which could see significant efficiency improvements and disruptions.
Follow Mike: Website; LinkedIn
Resources: Thoughts on the Market Podcast
Sponsor: Register for Alpha Architect’s LIVE HIDE webinar on March 26th here. Want to Learn More about Alpha Architect? Visit www.funds.alphaarchitect.com
Chapters
| 0:00 | |
| 1:31 | |
| 5:28 | |
| 9:52 | |
| 15:41 | |
| 20:01 | |
| 23:23 | |
| 35:48 | |
| 42:03 |
Transcript
Loading transcript...