MEBISODE: When to Sell?

In today’s Mebisode, Meb reads his latest paper, “When to Sell?”

Carl Richards – Rewiring Your Financial Mindset in the Age of Comparison | #602

Today’s guest is Carl Richards. Carl is a Certified Financial Planner, built and sold an investment firm, and hosts the podcast 50 Fires, which is backed by Chip and Joanna Gaines. He’s also the author of The Behavior Gap and The One-Page Financial Plan and his newest book is called Your Money: Reimaging Your Wealth with 101 Simple Sketches. In today’s episode, Carl discusses the emotional aspects of money and how our perceptions of wealth can be influenced by societal norms and personal experiences. He introduces concepts like the emotional balance sheet and the overnight test for investment decisions, emphasizing the need to align financial choices with personal goals rather than external pressures. The discussion also touches on the impact of news and social media on financial behavior.

Eddy Elfenbein – OG Financial Blogger Turned ETF Manager | #601

Today’s guest is Eddy Elfenbein, one of the OG financial bloggers at Crossing Wall Street. Eddy also runs the CWS ETF, which is from his annual buy list of 25 stocks. In today’s episode, Eddy shares his insights on investing, stock selection, and the challenges of managing an ETF. He discusses the origins of his buy list, his investment philosophy focused on high-quality stocks, and the importance of understanding market cycles. Eddie also provides advice for aspiring ETF managers and reflects on the unique stock picks that have defined his career.

Tobias Carlisle - Warren Buffett, Sun Tzu and The Ancient Art of Risk-Taking | #600

Today’s guest is Tobias Carlisle, founder of Acquirers Funds and serves as portfolio manager of the firm’s deep value strategy. He’s just released a book called Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett, Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk-Taking. In today’s episode, Toby starts by discussing the current valuation landscape and the challenge for small cap investors. Then he explores the intersection of Warren Buffett’s investment philosophy with Sun Tzu’s teachings. He walks through notable investment case studies, including General Re, Burlington Northern and Japanese trading houses. The case studies all convey the significance of patience, strategic thinking, and the pursuit of asymmetric opportunities in investing, while also addressing the psychological aspects that influence investor behavior.

Morgan Housel on The Illusion of Wealth and Happiness | #599

Today’s guest is Morgan Housel, the bestselling author of The Psychology of Money and Same As Ever. His books have sold over nine million copies. His new book releasing in October is The Art of Spending Money. Morgan is a partner at The Collaborative Fund and serves on the board of directors at Markel. In today’s episode, Morgan discusses the complexities of wealth, spending, and happiness. He shares insights on the psychological implications of financial identity and the importance of independence and purpose in achieving true happiness. One theme throughout is that investing is more about human behavior than financial principles.

Hedgeye’s Keith McCullough on Market Opportunities and Risks | #598

Today’s guest is Keith McCullough, Founder and CEO of Hedgeye, a premier online financial media company that provides real-time investment research. In today’s episode, Keith discusses his journey in the financial world, the importance of market signals, and the innovative quad framework he uses to navigate economic scenarios. He emphasizes the significance of understanding the U.S. dollar’s impact on global markets, the psychology behind investing decisions, and the necessity of position sizing. McCullough also shares insights into Hedgeye's new venture into asset management and the future of ETFs, highlighting the evolving landscape of investing.

Turning Expiring Options Into Venture Exposure [Vested’s Dave Thornton] | #597

Today’s guest is Dave Thornton, co-founder & Chief Customer Officer of Vested, which helps startup employees unlock the value in their equity. In today’s episode, Dave walks through the messy reality of startup stock options, noting $600 billion of startup equity is abandoned over a market cycle. He explains how Vested helps solve this problem by providing funding to help employees exercise their expiring stock options, in exchange for exposure to a portion of the now-owned shares. Dave also previews Vestimate, a tool to track the fair-market value of your equity over time that’s already reducing abandonment, and shares practical takeaways for employees, advisors, and allocators seeking exposure to venture capital.

Innovative Tax Strategies in Bond Investing [Alex Morris] | #596

Today’s guest is Alex Morris, the CEO & CIO of F/m Investments, a $19 billion investment firm. In today’s episode, Alex & Meb walk through the evolution of investment strategies and what led Alex to launch a series of bond-centric ETFs, with TBIL emerging as the breakout success. He also highlights his new “Compoundr” series, seeks to convert bond ETF income into price appreciation by rotating exposures around dividend dates. Be sure to stick around for a bold prediction about dual share classes.

Bob Elliott on The Biggest Macro Experiment of Our Lifetime | #595

Today’s guest is Bob Elliott, CEO and CIO of Unlimited, which uses machine learning to create low-cost index replications of 2&20 style alternative investments. Prior to founding Unlimited, Bob served on the Investment Committee at Bridgewater Associates and led Ray Dalio’s investment research team for nearly a decade. In today’s episode, Bob discusses the macroeconomic landscape — from the Federal Reserve to the impact of tariffs and the dollar’s long-term overvaluation. He highlights the disconnect between weakening economic data and elevated stock valuations, noting that prices can’t diverge from the real economy for long. He also emphasizes the role of asset allocation and diversification, with a focus on TIPS, bonds, and hedge fund replication strategies.

The Parallels of Past and Present in Finance - Mark Higgins | #594

Today’s guest is Mark J. Higgins, a Senior VP for IFA Institutional, where he focuses on providing advisory services to institutions. He’s also the author of Investing in U.S. Financial History: Understanding the Past to Forecast the Future, which is one of my favorite books on financial history. In today’s episode, Mark explores the parallels between historical financial crises and today’s economic landscape. He touches on the disturbing trends in private markets, the ethics of asset management, the evolution of U.S. debt, the future of the U.S. dollar, and more.

A Golden Moment for Asset Allocation | Mike Philbrick | #593

Today’s returning guest is Mike Philbrick, CEO of ReSolve Asset Management and Founding Member of the Return Stacked Team. In today’s episode, Mike discusses the evolving role of gold and Bitcoin in investment portfolios given the current economic landscape. He explores the historical performance of gold, its risk premium, and how it can help negate home country bias. Then he explains how investors can utilize gold futures to enhance a traditional 60/40 allocation.

KKR's Henry McVey - Regime Change is Here: Think Differently About Asset Allocation | #592

Today’s guest is Henry McVey, Head of Global Macro & Asset Allocation and Firmwide Market Risk and CIO of the KKR Balance Sheet. In today’s episode, Henry discusses the current macroeconomic landscape, emphasizing the regime change underway. He touches on the implications of a decline in the US dollar, where he sees opportunities in global markets, particularly in Europe and Japan, and asset allocation advice for investors.

Tax Strategies, Exchange Funds, and Portfolio Optimization with Wes Gray & Srikanth Narayan | #591

Today’s guests are Wes Gray, founder, CEO and Co-CIO of Alpha Architect, and Srikanth Narayan, founder and CEO of Cache, which he started in 2022 after experiencing concentrated stock positions in his own portfolio. Previously, he served in engineering and product leadership positions at Uber and Alphabet. In today’s episode, Meb, Wes & Srikanth share some big news about a new idea involving both exchange funds and 351 ETF conversions. Srikanth explains the mechanics of exchange funds, the risks associated with stock concentration, and the launch of his newest initiative. The discussion also touches on tax efficiency, fees, the competitive landscape of asset management, and more.

Sara Naison-Tarajano - Goldman Sachs’ Family Office Whisperer | #590

Today’s guest is Sara Naison-Tarajano, Global Head of Private Wealth Management Capital Markets and Goldman Sachs Apex. Sara has been at Goldman Sachs for over 25 years, and currently leads a worldwide platform that delivers multi-asset trading, financing, and direct-investment opportunities to some of the firm’s largest family offices. In today’s episode, Sara runs through her career at Goldman Sachs, and the distinct approach required for family office investing. She explores the unique balance of risk management and growth that helps protect generational wealth, as well as the importance of alternatives in these strategies. Finally, Sara covers networking opportunities, market insights, and the most common challenges that affect family offices.

Dan Rasmussen & D.A. Wallach on The Future of Biotech and Healthcare | #589

Today’s guests are Dan Rasmussen, founder of Verdad Advisers, and D.A. Wallach, a venture capital investor for Time BioVentures and an acclaimed recording artist. Pharrell Williams discovered D.A.’s band Chester French and signed the group to Interscope Records. In today’s episode, Dan & D.A. discuss the current state of biotech, the impact of AI on healthcare, and the role of innovative treatments in transforming patient care. The three also touch on the shifting narrative of private equity, tax strategies, venture capital returns, and much more.

Victor Haghani on Predicting the Market and Disciplined Asset Allocation | #588

Today’s guest is Victor Haghani, founder and CIO of Elm Wealth, which focuses on managing wealth with an emphasis on diversification, low fees, and tax efficiency. He’s also the author of The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions. In today’s episode, Victor explores the Crystal Ball challenge, and how position sizing can be even more important than knowing tomorrow’s news headlines. He also addresses the role of disciplined asset allocation in investment strategy, and how foreign stocks might stack up against US equities going forward. Finally, Victor touches on the relationship between expected return, fair value, and mean reversion, and whether or not the markets have a fair value at all.

Rob Arnott & Cam Harvey on Passive Investing Risks, The AI Boom & Stimulus That Doesn’t Stimulate | #587

Today’s guests are Rob Arnott, founder and Chairman of the board of Research Affiliates, and Campbell Harvey, Head of Research at Research Affiliates and Professor of Finance at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University. In today’s episode, Rob and Cam touch on the state of value investing in a megacap dominated market, emphasizing the potential consequences of large scale passive investing. They also touch on the rapid change presented by AI, what it may be capable of, and its impacts on how we should view investing. Finally, they address the global investing environment and macro trends, instability, and the role of government in changing world markets.

Whitney Baker on the End of ‘Buy the Dip’ & the American Bubble | #586

Today we’re joined by Whitney Baker, founder of Totem Macro and one of the sharpest minds in macro investing. Whitney was previously the head of Emerging Markets at Bridgewater Associates and worked at Soros Fund Management under current Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. In today’s episode, Whitney discusses the current macroeconomic landscape, emphasizing the end of the ‘buy the dip’ mentality and the unique challenges the U.S. faces as the bubble finally comes to an end. She touches on the challenges and opportunities in emerging markets, the impact of tariffs & AI on global growth dynamics, and ‘The Triple Yasu’ phenomenon. Finally, Whitney addresses the role of gold in investment portfolios, advocating for its inclusion as a hedge against currency debasement and economic uncertainty.

Kim Flynn - Unlocking Alternative Investments | #585

Today’s guest is Kim Flynn, President of XA Investments, which helps provide access to alternative investments. She was previously the Head of Product Development for Nuveen Investments Global Structured Products Group. In today’s episode, Meb and Kim discuss the democratization of alternative investments in relation to the recent explosion of interval funds. Then, Kim covers the challenges and opportunities in the interval fund space, and the potential for innovation with different asset classes, and best practices for advisors and investors interested in these products.

Cole Wilcox on The Power Law of Investing | #584

Today’s guest is Cole Wilcox, CIO of Longboard Asset Management, a boutique asset manager specializing in alternative investment strategies. In today’s episode, Cole walks through one of my favorite papers of all time, Does Trend-Following Still Work On Stocks? Hint: it does. Cole explains why you have to be a good loser to be a good investor, how power laws dominate the stock market, and the set up for trend following going forward.