Radio Show: Meb on Markets at Extremes, Anything BUT Market Cap, and Embracing Volatility | #616
In today’s radio show, Meb breaks down why market-cap–weighted investing may be nearing its limits after an extraordinary run in U.S. stocks. He explores CAPE ratios near historic extremes, the quiet resurgence of gold and commodities, and why equal weight, value, and global markets are suddenly back in the conversation. To close, Meb explains how trend following and real assets can help investors navigate regime shifts. Note: this was recorded on January 29, 2026.
Key Points
- The S&P's prolonged outperformance over equal weight indexes may signal a potential turning point in 2026, making equal weight a sensible move away from heavy market cap stocks.
- Despite the impressive 18% return of US stocks in 2025, they were among the lowest performers globally, suggesting a possible shift in investor interest towards foreign and emerging markets.
- Trend-following strategies, particularly in real assets like gold and silver, have proven effective in both reducing volatility and capturing significant returns, making them a valuable addition to traditional portfolios.
Resources: Valuation led year Biello on equal-weight Jeopardy 5 mistakes investors consistently make One fund portfolio All Time Highs A Good Time To Invest? No. A Great Time. BREAKING THE MARKET CAP LINK: The Case For A U.S. Equal Weight Approach US Resilience Resilient Long-Term Asset Return Study - The Ultimate Guide to Long-Term Investing Guide to the Markets – U.S.|1Q 2026 #10 “You Can Replace The Bonds In The Traditional 60/40 Portfolio With Gold And It Makes No Difference” Artificially Inflated: The Danger of Today’s 10x “Opportunity”
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Transcript
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