200 Years of Markets in 60 Minutes (Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid) | #618
In this episode, Jim Reid joins the discussion to explore the dynamics between real and nominal returns, offering historical insights into asset class performance. The conversation delves into how economic history underscores the importance of global diversification, and examines fiat money's role in shaping inflation and asset prices. The dialogue extends to the relationship between GDP growth and asset prices, with a focus on AI's economic impact. Long-term strategies, including dividends and ETFs, are analyzed alongside cultural differences in equity ownership and bond performance predictors. The episode wraps up with Deutsche Bank's 2026 outlook, UK market sentiment, and the implications of AI on economic volatility.
Key Points
- Understanding the distinction between real and nominal returns is crucial for evaluating the true performance of investments relative to inflation.
- History shows that maintaining a diversified portfolio across different asset classes and geographies can mitigate risks associated with economic crises and market volatility.
- Valuation remains the most reliable predictor of long-term investment returns, emphasizing the importance of buying assets when they are undervalued.
Follow Jim: LinkedIn
Resources: Long-Term Asset Return Study - The Ultimate Guide to Long-Term Investing 2025 was a typical valuation-led year
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Transcript
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