Vanguard’s Joe Davis on AI vs. The National Debt: The Tug-of-War To Decide America’s Future | #605
Today’s guest is Joe Davis, Vanguard’s Global Chief Economist and Global Head of Vanguard’s Investment Strategy Group. His latest research on megatrends is covered in his book, Coming Into View: How AI and Other Megatrends Will Shape Your Investments. In today’s episode, Joe explains why the coming decade for the U.S. economy will be shaped by a tug-of-war between AI and demographics-driven deficits. While the most likely outcome is optimistic (the benefits of AI offset demographic pressures), the next most likely outcome is pessimistic (AI fails to meet our expectations and growth tumbles, putting pressure on the government’s balance sheet). Joe emphasizes the need for investors to prepare for non-consensus outcomes and embrace diversification to navigate this uncertain future.
Key Points
- The rise of AI has the potential to significantly transform the economy and job market, making it crucial for individuals to embrace and integrate AI tools into their work to stay competitive.
- The investment landscape could see a shift where diversifying away from technology stocks and considering fixed income investments may provide better long-term returns, given the high probability of non-consensus economic outcomes.
Resources: Coming into View: How AI and Other Megatrends Will Shape Your Investments AI, demographics, and the U.S. economy Joe Davis, Vanguard - The Idea Multiplier…We Believe It’s One Of The First Leading Indicators Of Commercial Innovation | #202
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Chapters
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Transcript
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