UBS' Jason Draho - Another Roaring '20s for the US? | #538
Today’s guest is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas for UBS Global Wealth Management. He’s also the Chair of the US Investment Strategy Committee. In today’s episode, Jason talks about the possibility of a Roaring 20’s decade for the US economy. He discusses the factors contributing to this scenario, including a possible capex boom, AI, the green energy transition and security & deglobalization. He also covers the role of bonds in the new macro regime, the impact of inflation and growth on stocks and bonds, and his take on the deglobalization narrative.
Key Points
- The US economy has shown unexpected resilience due to a combination of strong household financial positions and misinterpretations of economic data.
- A potential "Roaring 20s" scenario for the US economy could be driven by significant investments in AI, green energy, and increased business dynamism, leading to higher productivity and growth.
- Despite recent challenges, high-quality bonds and gold are seen as attractive investment options due to their potential for asymmetrical returns and diversification benefits.
Follow Jason: LinkedIn
Research Rose colored glasses - October 2021 The 6% economy - April 2024 The roar is getting a little louder: Assessing the “Roaring ‘20s” outlook for the US economy - June 2024
Quotes
"I think ... a lot of investors have been dragged, not kicking and screaming, but in disbelief that the economy has done as well as it has."
"there's been essentially a positive aggregate demand shock to the economy, massive stimulus. And we can debate ... whether that's good or not, but what it did do is take us out of an environment for basically a decade post-financial crisis in '08 where it was just lower for a longer regime."
"...bonds aren't a negative asset class, but they're just not the ideal asset class that they were for so long. So, I think that means you need to think about other things to add to your portfolio."
"...to me this deglobalization idea sounds like a catchy buzzword. I think in practical matters, I'm much more skeptical that we're really going to somehow retrench after 40 years of moving in that direction."
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Chapters
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| 2:09 | |
| 3:08 | |
| 4:07 | |
| 6:29 | |
| 14:11 | |
| 23:26 | |
| 39:04 |
Transcript
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