The Meb Faber Show
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StoneX' Vincent Deluard: The S&P Is Hiding a Bear Market | #655
My guest today is Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX. In today’s episode, Vincent explains why he’s turning bearish on stocks after years of being a bull. He shares why tax collections are his favorite gauge of the economy, why the world is really paying $150 to $200 for oil and why Europe resembles Japan in 2012, just uglier. To close, Vincent makes the case for owning the yen, Korean won and UK stocks.
Key Points
- The rally in US equities looks increasingly narrow and fragile, with most stocks below key trend measures even as the index sits near highs.
- The macro backdrop is turning more stagflationary, with high energy and food pressures, weak real wage gains, and policy responses that risk adding more inflation.
- Outside the US, Japan, the UK, parts of Asia, and select emerging markets may offer better relative opportunities than Europe or broad US equities, especially where currencies and terms of trade are improving.
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Transcript
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