Victor Haghani on Predicting the Market and Disciplined Asset Allocation | #588
Today’s guest is Victor Haghani, founder and CIO of Elm Wealth, which focuses on managing wealth with an emphasis on diversification, low fees, and tax efficiency. He’s also the author of The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions. In today’s episode, Victor explores the Crystal Ball challenge, and how position sizing can be even more important than knowing tomorrow’s news headlines. He also addresses the role of disciplined asset allocation in investment strategy, and how foreign stocks might stack up against US equities going forward. Finally, Victor touches on the relationship between expected return, fair value, and mean reversion, and whether or not the markets have a fair value at all.
Key Points
- Market dynamics often lead to overvalued equities due to the behavior of extrapolators and the constraints on short selling, creating a tendency for bubbles and busts.
- The expected long-term return of stocks and their risks change over time, and thus, asset allocation should reflect these dynamic conditions rather than being static.
- Transparency in financial and gambling products, such as clearly showing odds and potential returns, is crucial for better decision-making and protecting consumers.
Follow Victor: Website; LinkedIn; X
Resources: Victor's Book | The Missing Billionaires The Crystal Ball Challenge Leveraged Direct Index Tax Loss Harvesting Roth Conversion
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Chapters
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| 1:45 | |
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| 11:46 | |
| 19:34 | |
| 24:02 | |
| 39:19 | |
| 56:01 | |
| 1:02:05 | |
| 1:06:08 |
Transcript
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