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Goldman Sachs’ Peter Oppenheimer on Concentration, Corrections & What To Do Next | #572

E572 • Feb 28, 2025 • 63 mins

Today’s guest is Peter Oppenheimer, Goldman Sachs’ Chief Global Equity Strategist and Head of Macro Research. He’s also the author of Any Happy Returns: Structural Changes and Super Cycles in Markets, which explains how cycles help explain investor returns. In today’s episode, Peter discusses how structural changes in macroeconomic drivers, geopolitics, government policy and social attitudes all combine to drive secular super cycles that help to explain investor returns. Then he focuses on what he calls the Post-Modern Cycle, which features a higher cost of capital, bigger governments and less globalization. He also touches on how AI and de-carbonization may impact financial market returns and opportunities. Throughout the episode, Peter emphasizes the need for diversification in investment strategies to both manage risk and enhance returns.

Key Points

Understanding market cycles and their phases—despair, hope, growth, and optimism—can provide valuable insights for anticipating market movements and investment opportunities.
Historical data reveals that some of the best returns in equity markets occur during periods of extreme pessimism when valuations are low, often contrary to popular belief that good news drives high returns.
Diversification across geographies, sectors, and asset classes is increasingly important, especially given the high valuations in US markets and the potential opportunities in undervalued regions like Europe and emerging markets.

Follow Peter: LinkedIn Peter's Books: The Long Good Buy: Analysing Cycles in Markets Any Happy Returns: Structural Changes and Super Cycles in Markets

Peter's Research: 2025 Outlook: The Year of the Alpha Bet - November 18, 2024 UK Equities: New York Calling - December 13, 2024 Concentration & Correction – What to do next - January 29, 2025

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Speakers

Meb Faber

Host • 24%

Peter Oppenheimer

Guest • 76%

Chapters

0:00	Starts
1:02	Introduction of Peter Oppenheimer
2:22	The Four Phases of the Equity Cycle
10:17	Thoughts on The US Market Today
17:23	European Banks vs. US Tech Stocks
20:32	Diversification and Sector Dominance in Equity Markets
23:35	Long-term Structural Changes in Markets
34:23	Personal and National Influences on Investing
44:37	AI and Technological Investment Opportunities
51:46	Valuation Cycles: China and the US
58:02	Most Memorable Investment

Transcript

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