BCG’s Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak on Global Macro: Recession Risk, Tariffs, Debt Dynamics | #582
Today’s guest is Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, Global Chief Economist at BCG and author Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk. In today’s episode, Philipp starts by sharing his framework to assess macroeconomic risk, emphasizing the importance of adapting to changing global conditions. Then he applies that framework to the world today and shares his view on tariffs and changing trade relations, the impact of AI on labor and the deflationary effects of technology. He also covers global currencies, including the dollar and gold, and if he believes we are headed for a recession.
Key Points
- Resist relying on economic models for precise forecasts and instead integrate insights from various disciplines for a more holistic understanding.
- Avoid the seductive nature of doomsaying in public discourse, as it often leads to exaggerated claims not supported by evidence.
- The structural tightness in the labor market and the gradual impact of AI and tech innovations suggest a long-term deflationary trend, rather than immediate, drastic changes.
Follow Philipp: Website; LinkedIn
Resources: Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk
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Transcript
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